Analyzing the Josef Martínez that Inter Miami is getting (2024)

Earlier this month, Josef Martínez’s six memorable seasons in Atlanta came to an end. The final year of his contract with Atlanta United was bought out by the club, which cleared the way for the 2018 MLS MVP to sign with conference rival Inter Miami as a free agent.

To understand what version of Martínez Miami is getting, one must first understand why Atlanta United actively worked to part ways with one of the most impactful players in their brief history.

“It was difficult for us, as well,” Atlanta United technical director Carlos Bocanegra told reporters on January 18. “Josef is beloved at the club. We understand that the fan base, the city… he has been excellent for us since 2017. What we’re not going to be able to do is replace the 2017 Josef Martinez that came in here.”

Martínez left Atlanta United with an impressive haul of individual accolades and league titles. His 39-goal 2018 season, in which he won the MLS All-Star MVP, the league MVP and MLS Cup MVP awards is among the best single-season performances in league history. Martínez followed that up with 32 total goals in 2019. His total of 111 goals for the club in all competitions will stand as the high mark for many years to come.

Martínez arrived in Atlanta on loan from Serie A side Torino, unsung and unknown to the North American soccer audience. The proverbial chip on his shoulder and the scowl that he often played with became a major part of his on-field brand. As Martínez’s star status grew league-wide, his bravado formed a deep connection with the city of Atlanta. Media availability with Martínez was highly anticipated among local reporters. The outspoken Venezuelan was a quote machine.

Martínez was Atlanta United’s celebrity brand ambassador, complete with highlight-reel goal celebrations, courtside seats at Atlanta Hawks games, and a penalty kick approach more outlandish than it was effective. His exaggerated stutter-step and hop method made his coaches nervous, but it was well suited for a player who loves the spotlight.

“(Tata Martino) told me once that he felt more comfortable when I stepped up and struck it hard,” Martínez told The Athletic in 2019. “He respected it if I felt good about it, but he said it made him feel like he had his balls in his throat.”

Martínez uses reporters’ microphones as his personal megaphone. When Martino left Atlanta and Frank de Boer took over, Martínez openly campaigned against the Dutch coach’s pragmatic possession-first philosophy.

“This club put Atlanta on the map,” Martínez said in 2019. “We’ve won three consecutive finals here, but we’re not finished. This team should never change its style of play or how we express ourselves on the field. The coach can be new, but we’re the ones playing the game.”

In February of 2020, Martínez suffered a serious knee injury in the MLS regular season opener against Nashville SC. Since then, Martínez has battled his way back from multiple knee surgeries, and along the way, he battled two of his head coaches in Atlanta. Public spats with Gabriel Heinze and Gonzalo Pineda put Martínez’s longevity with the club at risk, and set in motion an unfortunate ending to his time in Atlanta.

Inter Miami signed Martínez to a one-year deal with an option for a second season, which seems to be a deal that takes into account that his marketability in MLS could stagnate in South Florida if he fails to hit double-digit goals. Conversely, a successful reboot of the Martínez brand in Miami would be a boon for the league.

Martínez is no longer a designated player. His role under Miami coach Phil Neville, and his overall fitness, is uncertain as the start of the season nears. Will Martínez lead Inter Miami’s front line or will Neville gradually increase his workload to ease his transition?

Martínez led Atlanta United in goals in 2021 and 2022, scoring a total of 21 over those two seasons despite playing limited minutes. So there’s reason to give him a chance in a different situation — though it could be his last one in MLS.

Josef Martínez in MLS action, before and after ACL tear in 2020

*Frank de Boer
** Gabriel Heinze/Gonzalo Pineda
***Gonzalo Pineda

Atlanta hasn’t provided its players with a stable manager since Martino left after the MLS Cup win in 2018. Martínez was prolific in 2019 in spite of his team’s difficult transition to playing for Frank de Boer. While fans lamented the team’s departure from a breakneck style of play for a more pragmatic alternative, it had little impact on what the Venezuelan excelled at in the final third.

What a ball 🎯 @JulianGressel

What a finish 💥 @JosefMartinez17 pic.twitter.com/B8n765EBVV

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 19, 2019

The clip above is Martínez and Atlanta at their very best in 2019. In his first season without co-star Miguel Almirón, his similarly prolific partnership with Julian Gressel became even more important in terms of creating chances. Against the same Portland Timbers side that Atlanta beat in MLS Cup the previous season, Gressel was able to find a channel in behind the back line and sent a perfectly weighted ball into Martínez’s path. From there, it’s too easy for an elite striker: Plenty of time to settle the ball and shift it toward his right foot, a lack of pressure as he weighed his strike, and enough space between the goalkeeper and his net to ensure a looping finish would be difficult to save.

All of that, of course, was ultimately sealed with his trademark kneel. MLS has seen few players be as ruthless and clinical as Martínez was in 2019.

Unfortunately, his ACL tear in 2020 robbed him of a chance to build off of his gilded campaign. By the time he returned for the 2021 season, De Boer had been replaced by Gabriel Heinze, who lasted just half a season before being shown the door —in no small part due to his failure to build a relationship with his star striker. Ultimately, the Argentine was sent packing and replaced with first-time head coach Gonzalo Pineda.

As the team cycled through coaches, Martínez was visibly impacted while he recovered from his knee surgery. His expected goal output dropped notably, as he took over half a shot less per match while being mildly less accurate with putting his chances on frame. He attempted a full dribble less per 90 minutes, taking on fewer defenders due to a combination of different marching orders — visible in the data through his penalty area touches per 90 —plus understandable physical limitations following the procedure.

Martínez faced mental hurdles as he worked to avoid another stint on the sidelines, but his offside rate was nearly identical, suggesting a similar level of initiative to beat the defensive line.

As the 2022 season progressed and Martínez wasn’t instantly back to his world-beating best, Pineda turned the Venezuelan into a super-sub. Fourteen of his 26 appearances came from the bench, a significant change after he started all but nine of his first 108 regular season appearances for Atlanta. While that diminished role understandably would limit his ability to make continuous impacts, his shooting accuracy improved beyond his pre-injury form as he enjoyed more service into the box.

Moreover, Martínez’s status as a rotational figure may have implied that he was a lesser player, but in fact, it ensured he was on the field when he was most dangerous.

Josef Martínez’s xG per time interval, 2022

*Totals include stoppage time at end of each half

Breaking each match from the 2022 regular season into 15-minute intervals helps show Martínez’s effectiveness in different moments. At his best, the striker was viewed as a clutch player who was capable of putting a dagger through his opponents’ hearts late in a match. In his 12 starts last year, he managed just two first-half goals, with the other seven coming after halftime.

While he underperformed his expected goals output in each of the three first-half intervals, he outperformed those clips no matter the moment of the second half. Not only that, but his expected goals increased interval-over-interval after the break, potentially indicating an uptick in touches as the final whistle approached, while also validating his ability as the end of a match neared.

Miami may not be a bad situation for Martínez if Neville decides to ease him into his new side. Leo Campana was a revelation in his first year with Miami, scoring 12 goals in 28 games across all competitions and turning a loan stint into a permanent move away from Wolverhampton. Now on the roster as a young designated player, the club will undoubtedly hope to continue his development before moving him on as their first significant player sale.

There are two obvious ways to go about Martínez’s situation. The first is attempting to get him to accept super-sub status again, giving Neville an ace up his sleeve as Miami looks to improve on its 14 losses and six draws in 2022. The alternative is to play both Campana and Martínez in a dual-striker setup, which Neville regularly attempted last year.

However, a look at the five formations that Miami utilized most often last year —a single striker as either a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-4-1-1, as well as strike partnerships in a 4-4-2, 4-3-1-2 or a 5-3-2 base setup — shows it may not be best for the team as a whole, with a nearly identical sample size for us to study.

Inter Miami’s five most common formations, 2022*

*4-2-3-1, 4-4-2, 4-3-1-2, 4-4-1-1, 5-3-2 — only percentages with 7%+ of season’s deployment

Having seen Martínez’s first two years post-surgery, there’s no guarantee that he would be a massive upgrade over Gonzalo Higuain — particularly given the Argentine’s strong close to his final season. With two strikers on the field, Miami’s expected goals output decreased, as did their raw number of shots. The team played with less of the ball, which does cater to Martínez’s strengths in transition, but the team managed fewer attacking sequences — whether it was on the break or in a sustained moment of possession.

Of course, the coach and his strikers will have the full preseason to figure out how to get the most out of a promising young striker and a former MVP. As intriguing as the tactical possibilities are, the off-field implications of Martínez’s arrival in Miami could impact the legacies of both the player and the organization.

At this point, Miami is in desperate need of a high-profile acquisition to start off on the right foot. Blaise Matuidi and Rodolfo Pizarro were marquee signings who fell short of what is expected from high-priced players. Gonzalo Higuaín also struggled to adapt before ending his career in Miami as a fan favorite. Inter Miami are still actively pursuing Lionel Messi, which would effectively wipe out all previous failures —but it seems increasingly likely that he’ll remain in Paris for another year or two. In the meantime, the club must avoid Martínez becoming a former MLS great who flopped in South Florida.

As for Martínez himself, a third season of good-but-not-elite output would effectively extinguish much of his mystique. Every great goalscorer inevitably hits a decline, but if he’s unable to come closer to his best form, questions of when he’ll be back to that great form will be replaced with those of if he’s still capable at all. In that case, it’ll be hard not to wonder what could have been had he not torn his ACL on Nissan Stadium’s natural grass surface in 2020.

It makes for a pairing of team and player that, while not without risk of being a mismatched fit, will certainly be fascinating to follow.

(Photo: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports)